Italy winners in 2021, but not 2020!
Would Italy or England have contested a July 2020 Final? Find out how Euros postponement helped win it for the Azzurri.
Now that Azzurri fans have had time to bask in the glory of another major competition triumph, it’s time to play devil’s advocate. Would Italy have won the Euros if the tournament went ahead as planned in 2020 instead of 2021?
Caveat* — this article is not intended to rub the shine off Italy’s Euros Trophy, but instead it’s purpose is to highlight that sometimes you can have the talent but the timing just isn’t right.
For those with less time here is the much shorter, edited article published for Football Italia.
Roberto Mancini’s squad defeated England via a penalty shootout to clinch their second European title, extending their unbeaten streak to 34 matches. This impressive run of results, which began in 2018, well before lockdown restrictions were imposed, was at 14 by June of 2020 — the month that the UEFA Euros was originally scheduled to be contested.
Can you imagine Italy winning all seven tournament matches without having Marco Verratti, Leonardo Spinazzola, Manuel Locatelli and captain Giorgio Chiellini in the squad while Federico Bernadeschi and Moise Kean spearheaded the attack?
No, neither can I.
Prepare yourself, I’m about to point out 12 player variations, based on form and injuries, to the squad that Roberto Mancini would have named in May 2020 had the Euros not been postponed until 2021.
Let’s take a look at where the Italian national team was sequentially.
The last loss that Azzurri fans endured was in September 2018, a 1–0 loss to Portugal in the UEFA Nations League, which is almost three years ago at the time of writing.
After the humiliation of missing FIFA 2018 under Gian Piero Ventura, Roberto Mancini’s Italy side had won all 10 of their European qualifying games, but were rarely challenged by Greece, Bosnia, Armenia, Finland or Lichtenstein.
England and Germany friendlies were both scheduled in for Italy, four days apart, in the lead up to June 2020. If Italy lost either game — highly likely — then the streak was over. The “we’re undefeated” tag line would be obsolete, a huge psychological bearing moving forward.
Being undefeated fuelled Italy’s confidence and belief.
Was Italy a realistic threat to France and Belgium? Or even Croatia, Portugal, England or Spain in July 2020?
Italy hadn’t beaten a tougher opponent than Poland during that 14 game undefeated streak, a 1–0 win in October 2018. Apart from Italy thrashing minnows Armenia 9–1 and Lichtenstein 6–0, there was little to thrilled about.
To quote most UK-based pundits, “Italy still hadn’t played anyone”.
Sure, Mancini’s side would have been able to navigate through the group stages, but they simply didn’t have ample time to establish a reputation of being feared which is a necessary component when it comes to winning trophies.
The mister, understandably, hadn’t yet been able to field a consistent lineup. In fact, the only constants throughout Euro 2020 qualification games, all of which were played in 2019, were Donnarumma, Bonucci, Jorginho, Barella, Bernadeschi and Immobile.
But what a difference 12 months makes.
Approaching June 2021, Italy had extended the undefeated run to 27, generating classy displays against Poland and the Netherlands in latter half of 2020.
Manuel Locatelli, Domenico Berardi and Alessandro Bastoni had only just been given their chances — months AFTER Euro 2020 was originally planned.
To paraphrase Mickey in Rocky II, this “greasy fast Italian tank” looked unstoppable, winning it’s previous eight games in the lead up to this year’s Euros, scoring 25 times while never conceding.
2020 vs 2021
Italy was able to win European silverware in 2021 thanks to a collective effort. Responsibilities were distributed throughout the entire squad as Giovanni Di Lorenzo backed up the injured Alessandro Florenzi early on, Marco Verrati and Manuel Locatelli interchanged starting places and Emerson eventually replaced Italy’s brightest spark, Leonardo Spinazzola.
Then there was that “good problem to have”. Sassuolo’s Domenico Berardi, originally preferred by Mancini against Turkey and Switzerland, made way for Federico Chiesa. Italy had a surplus of in-form attackers. Fans screaming about the omissions of Matteo Politano and Moise Kean seem like distant whispers nowadays.
Neither Chiesa nor Berardi were in scintillating form during the 2019/20 Serie A season. In fact Federico Bernadeschi was Roberto Mancini’s preferred right-sided attacker in 2019 with Stephan El Shaarawy hot on his heels.
Comparing form over the past two seasons, Federico Chiesa was still finding his feet until his €60 million transfer to Juventus, empowering the lively forward to study superstar Cristiano Ronaldo — a gigantic step up from Fiorentina. The wide attacker let loose for the Bianconeri, scoring 8 Serie A goals, 4 times in the Champions League and the winner in the Italian Cup Final.
Lorenzo Insigne went from a mediocre 8 goal total in 2019/20 to his career best haul of 19 goals in 2020/21 — a clear, distinguishable transition in form and leadership.
Like Manuel Locatelli and Alessandro Bastoni, Domenico Berardi did not take part in the Euro qualifiers, and was not recalled to the national team setup until October 2020. The Sassuolo wide-man ended last campaign with 17 goals to cement his place in Mancini’s squad ahead of Matteo Politano.
With the extra Serie A season under his belt, Giovanni Di Lorenzo further elevated his status as a versatile defender by completing his second term at Napoli. It’s easy to forget that Di Lorenzo was playing in Serie B prior to the Ventura-Mancini national team handover. Without tournament postponement, Danilo D’Ambrosio and Armando Izzo were the favourites to shadow Alessandro Florenzi.
Nicolò Barella had only just completed his first season at Inter Milan. However, the tournament delay enabled the Inter midfielder to excel, helping his club to the Scudetto.
Leonardo Spinazzola was behind Emerson and Cristiano Biraghi in the pecking order for the left-back role. But the Roma star shone brightly in an underperforming and uninspiring Giallorossi team, making his inclusion obligatory. Spinazzola is now a household name throughout Europe after invaluable contributions in both attack and defence.
Alessandro Bastoni required the extra season to transcend from squad player to regular starter under Antonio Conte. His selection denied Gianluca Mancini and Alessio Romagnoli, and after stepping in to start against Wales, the young Inter defender looks to be in the mix for FIFA 2022.
Jorginho’s last twelve months catapulted Chelsea’s top League scorer into Ballon d’Or calculations after steering his team to UEFA Champions League success. The difference in form and confidence from previous seasons was substantial.
Then we need to take acknowledge injuries.
Giorgio Chiellini only played 4 games for Juventus in 2019/20 after suffering a cruciate ligament rupture. The Livorno-born hitman would have almost certainly missed the Euros in 2020. Marco Verratti was also unavailable after testing positive just days before the tournament was supposed to begin.
Here are some other interesting points to consider.
Sandro Tonali was preferred in midfield by Mister Mancini prior to lockdown. Would the Milan midfielder contribute in the same way that Manuel Locatelli and Matteo Pessina were able to? They were paramount to Italy’s transition from Group Stage to the Knockouts, scoring twice each to strengthen Italy’s claims of being a genuine contender.
Locatelli was named in the UEFA XI after his Match Day 2 performance which sunk the Swiss. Pessina was a late inclusion after Roma’s Lorenzo Pellegrini suffered a muscular injury days before the tournament began. Neither Locatelli, nor Pessina, would have been selected in 2020.
I haven’t even factored in any possible injuries during the tournament to that hypothetical 23-man 2020 Italy squad!
The Counter Argument
Italy may have had better striker options in 2020, given that Fabio Quagliarella was a smidgeon younger and Francesco Caputo was fit and firing. Albeit, Kevin Lasagna was regularly chosen.
However without Caputo’s injury problems in 2021/21, we wouldn’t have seen the rapid progression of Giacomo Raspadori, his club understudy who’d scored 5 goals late in the Serie A season against Juventus, Genoa, Roma and Milan. The kid was ready, silver lining and all that.
Others may argue that Nicolò Zaniolo and Moise Kean would combine to lead Italy to glory in 2020. Zaniolo had ruptured his cruciate ligament while Kean, playing at Everton in his debut Premier League season, endured a shocking campaign with just 2 goals in 29 games.
All of these components collectively surely would have been the difference between Italy finding the physical and mental fortitude to stagger past Spain or England.
Would England have made a 2020 final?
Leading up to the June 2020, England had won 12 of 15 games, terrorising sides like Kosovo, Montenegro and Bulgaria, but had lost to Czech Republic and Netherlands in other competitive fixtures.
While the Kane-Sterling partnership looked solid — scoring 20 goals between them — there are some doubts surrounding the form of England’s young guns that were so vital to Gareth Southgate’s game plan.
For instance, at the end of the 2019/20 Premier League, Mason Mount was 21 years old in just his first season at Chelsea after leaving Derby while Declan Rice, also 21, played for a West Ham side which finished in 16th.
John Stones featured only 16 times for Manchester City in 2019/20 while Luke Shaw had played a fairly mediocre season at Manchester United.
Jack Grealish had just completed one season in the Premier League for Aston Villa. Calvin Phillips was down in Championship football, the English second division, with Leeds. The 18 year old Bukayo Saka of Arsenal wouldn’t have been considered by Southgate.
The case can also be made that England would have been coerced into selecting Michael Keane, Eric Dier, Dele Alli, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Jesse Lingard, Danny Rose and Danny Welbeck.
However, Jadon Sancho and Marcus Rashford would have arguably been closer to starting eleven places given their goal tallies of 17 for Borussia Dortmund and Manchester United respectively after the 2019/20 campaign. Jamie Vardy, not selected in 2021, was in better form with 23 goals for Leicester City.
Conclusion
A weaker Italy squad would have struggled to push past the quarter final stage. Romelu Lukaku and Dries Mertens up against Alessio Romagnoli and Gianluca Mancini? Sandro Tonali, at 20 years of age and playing at Brescia, containing Kevin De Bruyne following his career best season?
My money would have been on Belgium who’d lost just twice in 40 games — including a streak of 24 undefeated — and won 10 consecutive prior to lockdown 2020.
Then there is World Cup champion France and finalist Croatia, defending champion Portugal, then Spain and Denmark.
Apart from individual players improving their form at club level, Italy required the extra 12 months to gel as a squad collectively. Mancini and his Sampdoria armada were able to harness the confidence of the extended unbeaten streak and transform it into a fear factor.
Perhaps fate played out the way the Azzurri needed it to — dramatic — just like Germany 2006. Even though they had their backs to the wall in the Final after just 2 minutes, they believed as England showed fear by sitting deep.
This trophy was won in an odd year, during an odd period of history, clinched away from home in a cauldron full of trepidation, filled to the brim with fearful fans and a frightened opponent. After the blessing of having an extra year to build such a solid squad, Italy fans can enjoy a sixth major trophy.
Forza Azzurri 2021.
Well, maybe this just might be one crazy hypothesis.
I’m sure an Italian starting eleven reliant on Bernadeschi, Tonali, Romagnoli and the fitness of Florenzi would have celebrated wildly in front of the away stand at Wembley, as first planned, in July of 2020.
I hope you’ve detected a sarcastic tone while reading the previous statement.
*I am an Italy fan. I went to Wembley to watch them win in 2021. I am merely pointing out that sometimes it’s all about timing.
Thanks for your time. Read Decade of Domination : Juventus by David Ferrini
David Ferrini on Twitter https://twitter.com/davidferrini
David Ferrini on the web : www.davidferrini.com
