Serie A : Two Gone, One To Go.
An Update on the Seven Suffering Serie A clubs with Five Rounds to Go.
With just a handful of matches to play in Italy’s Serie A, let’s take a revised look at the relegation battle in 2020/21.
Since my last article, Serie A : Who’s Going Down?, there has been a remarkable rise from the ashes, as well as a stumble or two by other clubs.
While Inter Milan is powering to a nineteenth Scudetto, we analyse the predicament for clubs at the opposite end of the Calcio spectrum.
Firstly, how does Serie A rank teams that finish level on points?
The deciding tie-breakers in Serie A are as follows :
- Head-to-head points
- Head-to-head goal difference
- Goal difference
- Higher number of goals scored
- Playoff at neutral venue if relevant for deciding champion, relegation or participating in a European league, otherwise by draw.
Secondly, what should the points threshold be now that Cagliari and Torino have risen while Spezia and Benevento have stagnated?
Initially we presumed 35 points would suffice due to the extremely poor performances by Crotone, Parma and Cagliari, but now we’re not so sure.
It could even end up being more than last season’s threshold of 36+ with Lecce relegated with 35. *Thirty-six it is (*Subject to Change)
Thirdly, let’s get the obituaries out of the way — Crotone and Parma.
With five rounds to go, it’s really only safe to declare three things.
- Crotone is done (not mathematically… yet).
- Junior Messias is a star.
- Simy is the target of numerous Serie A clubs for next season.
Just the one win for Crotone in the past seven games, and that solitary victory was against nineteenth placed Parma.
Even if Serse Cosmi can win the final six matches of the season, that will take his side to a thirty-three point total. That simply wont be enough.
Crotone is on the way to achieving the unfortunate record of “Most Goals Conceded In a Serie A Season”, and may also notch up the “Most Goals Conceded Per Game on Average”.
For the first record that would mean conceding ninety-two goals, one more than Casale’s 1933/34 Serie A tally of ninety-one. Crotone, until now, has copped eighty-three.
For the second record the Sharks would have to swallow down an average of 2.67 goals per game, meaning the concession of 102 goals in 38 games, which is unlikely.
Positively, Simy breaks the record for most goals scored by a relegated player, a juxtaposition highlighting the club’s fate and it’s players future.
Predicament : FINISHED.
The Crociati were my Wild Card, my Hail Mary — you get my point. April was supposed to be their month!
In some ways football is similar to politics — in reality there is no such thing as a safe space. Or perhaps we should be talking about self-harming when it comes to Parma.
In fact Parma went down to Crotone 3–4 at the Tardini on the weekend, perhaps an instinctive drowning response from the Southerners.
Parma will join Crotone in Serie B for 2021/22.
The Ducali have only won three times this season, so winning the last five games of the campaign should fetch you odds of about a trillion to one, considering upcoming opponents include Atalanta, Lazio and Sassuolo.
Parma were unable to defeat Benevento, drawing 2–2, and lost two all-important six-pointers with Crotone and Cagliari. And that was that.
In true form, Roberto D’Aversa’s men scored three times in each of those games but magnanimously donated four goals and three league points to their fiercest relegation rivals in the process.
Expect more of the same against Torino next Monday. Let’s not forget that the Parma suffered an embarrassing seventeen-game winless streak — the worst of any team in Serie A.
Currently with twenty points, winning the next five would see Parma end the season with thirty-five. With the cluster of teams now at the 31–35 points mark, this wont be enough.
Predicament : play the kids in order to increase their value.
Then there are three teams on thirty-one points
Let’s begin with Benevento.
Benevento handed Parma their only result of the past five games. Two points dropped against the Ducali cancels out the optimal work of pinching four points from Juventus.
After Round 28, Benevento had a six-point gap on Torino and a seven-point gap on Cagliari. Things looked promising. But how the not-so-mighty have stumbled.
Unable to get wins against Parma, Genoa or even a draw from Udinese, Benevento are now technically in the relegation zone thanks to their poor goal difference of -29.
Torino and Cagliari have mowed Benevento down —somewhat surprisingly I must admit.
Up next, Pippo Inzaghi has to confront his former side, Milan. Then there is a season-defining clash with Cagliari.
It’s time to dust off the book of spells and start filling the hot pot for the Witches of Campania. A point against the Rossoneri could be crucial, and the penultimate round against Crotone will be earmarked as three points.
Torino versus Benevento on Match Day 38 will be dramatic.
The Situation : Kamil Glik, along with Pasquale Schiattarella and Gianluca Caprari need to reignite this side which is low on confidence and belief.
Seven more points, a total of thirty-eight, may just be enough.
- A draw against Cagliari on Match Day 35 is enough to earn Benevento the respective Head-To-Head advantage which will come into effect should the two clubs finish the campaign on equal points in 17th and 18th positions.
- Benevento holds Head-To-Head advantage over Genoa
Before reading on I recommend to queue up the L.L. Cool J anthem “Mama Said Knock You Out”.
Don’t Call It A Comeback, they’ve been here for years. Well, five consecutive years anyway. After a glorious victory over Roma, Cagliari has won three matches on the trot and are back from the brink!
Not bad considering that Cagliari were winless for sixteen games from November to February — the League’s second-worst winless streak of the season.
The Sardinians have returned to good form and are ready to “knock Benevento out”…on Match Day 35 when they travel to Campania.
The sporting cliche “six-pointer” has never had so much emphasis for Luigi Semplici’s team.
Cagliari MUST defeat Benevento. Not just for the three points, but also to eliminate the current Head-To-Head advantage that Benevento holds over them after Filippo Inzaghi’s men won 2–1 on Match Day 16 at the Sardegna Arena.
Twenty-one of Cagliari’s thirty-one league points have come from teams in the lower half of the table. Semplici will be looking to continue that trend against Fiorentina and Genoa on Match Days 36 and 38 respectively.
The Granata were undefeated for four consecutive matches until facing Napoli on Monday. Like Cagliari, Torino had managed to get all three points recently against both Udinese and Roma.
We thank the Zebrette and the Giallorossi for their generosity in making the relegation battle way more exciting. Benevento and Spezia, however, are not impressed.
Torino has a game in hand against Lazio, a big advantage over the other sides in the bottom seven. However, Davide Nicola will have to plan for some tough matches against Milan and Verona.
The Granata can ill afford to get anything other than a win against Parma. Two crucial six-pointers remain against Spezia and Benevento also. If Torino wins both of those then they will hold the respective Head-To-Head advantages.
Rolando Mandragora and Antonio Sanabria have been excellent since arriving in the January window. Torino has lost only four matches from their past fifteen — a complete turnaround from the first half of the season where they’d only won once before 2021.
Torino holds the Head-To-Head advantage over Genoa, and has a healthy overall goal advantage on Cagliari.
Then there is Spezia, with a two point advantage.
Spezia is everyone’s second team this season and Vincenzo Italiano has done a tremendous job at the helm of the Ligurian battleship.
The wins over Crotone and Cagliari were JUST as valuable as the victories over Sassuolo and Milan earlier this year, however the Bianconeri’s season has stagnated since and now they have to face four top-10 sides in their final five games.
The only “positive” for Italiano is that his men have to play against Hellas Verona and Sampdoria, both of whom have nothing much to play for.
However Napoli is out to exact revenge for losing to the Aquilloti earlier in the campaign while Torino and Roma will have plenty of motivation to win in the final two rounds with relegation and European qualification at stake respectively.
Mbala Nzola hasn’t scored since mid-January so Spezia needs a concerted team effort to creep over the finish line.
For the past eleven games, Spezia has only managed to scored two goals or more in a game three times, against the bottom three clubs — Crotone, Parma and Cagliari.
Daniele Verde, Emmanuel Gyasi and Roberto Piccoli need to get balls into nets.
Spezia holds the Head-To-Head on Cagliari and Benevento. Earlier in the year Spezia drew nil all with Torino, and at this point the Aquillotti have a twelve goal disadvantage against the Granata — the two clubs still having to play a reverse fixture on Match Day 37.
Predicament : Taking a point from Verona or Sampdoria is just as crucial as avoiding defeat against Torino. At least one more victory required and a couple of draws.
Fiorentina drew with Juventus on Sunday and subsequently have earned four of their thirty-four league points from the Old Lady. The only other side to have done that, until now, is Benevento.
Dusan Vlahovic scored his seventeenth goal against Juve. Should the 21-year-old Serbian international surpass the twenty-goal mark for the season then the Viola should survive their tumultuous top flight campaign.
It can all kick off this Sunday against Bologna — the Rossoblu are lacking confidence after a 5–0 hammering against Atalanta. Then there are three increasingly difficult matches with Cagliari (a six-pointer), Lazio and Napoli, the latter two clubs in great form and honing in on Top Four places.
Fiorentina has scored in eleven out of their past twelve Serie A matches however Bartlomiej Dragowski has only kept the solitary clean sheet from the past sixteen.
Match Day 38 could be pivotal though, as Beppe Iachini’s eleven will look to acquire a “regulation three points” against the hapless Sharks of Crotone.
Fiorentina, for now, holds the Head-To-Head over Cagliari (1–0 win) but the pair will meet in May.
Briefly
Genoa, on thirty-six points, has been in poor form but should be able to get a few points before season’s send. The Grifone has the Head-To-Head on Spezia and Cagliari, while it will come down to overall goal difference with Fiorentina (which is extremely close).
Conclusion
So a grand total of seven suffering clubs. Two of those have been put out of their misery. It’s a flip of a coin between Benevento and Cagliari for me. Spezia is also heavily at risk.
Let’s reconvene after Match Day 36.
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