The Serie A Fat Lady
There’s just one relegation spot left and two possible outcomes.
*Third update of article after Benevento-Crotone result,
Click here for the original article published prior to the matches on May 15th
It’s Adolfo Gaich! Benevento with the win over Juventus. The Stregoni move up to twenty-nine points, seven more than Cagliari, and are all but assured of safety.
That was Match Day 28 of Serie A. Even I thought Benevento would go on to survive with Cagliari and Parma looking woeful — the two clubs with the worst winless streaks of the campaign.
Fast forward to Match Day 37 and it’s Cagliari (36 points) who has a four point lead over eighteenth-placed Benevento. Oh how that late Simy goal for Crotone against Benevento was celebrated on the island of Sardinia.
Cagliari survives!
Just two wins in twenty-three matches for Pippo Inzaghi’s Benevento after failing to hold off a ten-man Crotone side, drawing 1–1 at the Vigorito on Sunday.
And to make matters worse, Spezia is safe after defeating Torino 4–1 on Saturday, the Granata now with a three point lead on Benevento.
ma non è finita finché non canta la signora grassa (said no Italian ever)
But it’s not over until the Fat Signora sings, and Benevento might have to unleash those tuckshop-lady arms and get swinging before they end up like Matrona Parmigiana and Cicciona Crotone, singing for their supper in Serie B.
Behold the Serie A standings and let’s also analyse the Head to Heads (H2H).
Now take a look at the games that matter in the final two rounds.
In 2019/20, Benevento versus Crotone was first against second in Serie B. Today it was 18th vs 19th in Serie A.
Benevento and Crotone ended 1–1 after Simy equalised in second-half stoppages, rubbing out Gianluca Lapadula’s first half finish.
This takes the Streghe to thirty-two points, three shy of Torino.
Crotone has earned the “dragging everyone down with them” reputation this season, defeating relegation rivals Spezia 4–1,Torino 4–2, Parma twice 2–1 and 3–4 as well as Benevento in the reverse fixture in January which ended 4–1.
Spezia defeated Torino 4–1 on Saturday, the Aquilloti will play in the Italian top flight next season. Congratulations to Vincenzo Italiano and the Plateks. Spezia won the head to head against Torino, Cagliari and Benevento.
The Granata have been left behind to either get a results against Lazio on Tuesday-or park the pullman against Benevento in the final round.
A Lazio win over Torino would create a play-out situation when Davide Nicola meets Filippo Inzaghi.
Cagliari are now safe thanks to their six game undefeated streak and that late Simy goal against Benevento. In the past five rounds only Inter Milan and Napoli had been in better form.
Benevento are still alive. Avoiding defeat against Crotone was enough to avoid the fatal blow from the fat lady who is warming up her vocal chords to sing a farewell tune while delivering the final calcio in faccia. But that may happen on Match Day 38.
Torino and Benevento is the big match, assuming Lazio defeats Torino in the catch up Match Day 25 game, and it could come down to the Head to Head (H2H).
HEAD TO HEAD — who rules who?
In a previous article regarding relegation, we answered the question “how does Serie A rank teams that finish level on points?” But here’s a timely reminder.
The deciding tie-breakers in Serie A are as follows :
- Head-to-head points
- Head-to-head goal difference
- Goal difference
- Higher number of goals scored
- Playoff at neutral venue if relevant for deciding champion, relegation or participating in a European league, otherwise by draw.
Benevento vs Torino ended 2–2 in Campania so if Benevento gets the win then they survive. Torino needs a draw against Lazio midweek, or have a second chance with another draw against Benevento.
Torino’s defensive form is tragic, conceding eleven goals in their past two games while only tucking away one.
Benevento has only scored two goals in their past four matches while Lorenzo Montipò has the plucked the ball from his goals eight times.
One thing was for sure — Cagliari and Torino fans had suddenly all become Crotone supporters this weekend. It’s festa-festa in Sardinia.
Will Serie A’s fat lady be bellowing out a tune on Tuesday night? Perhaps next weekend. Let’s wait and see.
All aboard the Hypothetical Express, Love Serie A!
